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Outsourced Forecasting – FAQ

Where are the Real Opportunities for Forecast Improvement? The key opportunities for enhancing forecast accuracy and reliability with statistical forecasting applications lies more in a mastery of the forecasting system versus using domain expertise to the machine produced forecasting end result. In fact, most companies have no idea how much their planners are increasing or […]

Good Estimators Are Also Good Demand Planners

One of the key skills of a demand planner is knowledge of predictive statistics or estimation. As we know, there are four properties of a good estimator as mentioned below. In this article we shall explore these properties as applicable to demand planners as well. Unbiasedness Efficiency Sufficiency Consistency Unbiasedness In demand planning the planner […]

How Much Data Is Good For Forecasting?

When a demand planner thinks about Forecasting the first thing that comes to mind is data. It is a common question by the planners about ‘how much data is required for forecasting’. In this article, we are going to discuss about the amount of data required for the reliable Forecasting. First let us burst the […]

Explaining Business Planning through the Game of Cricket

If you are a demand planner or working in a supply chain team in an organization, there is good probability that you may be frequently feeling the need for a collaborative business planning. Coming from a cricket-loving nation, we thought of attempting the analogy of the concept to this gentleman’s game that needs great deal […]

5 reasons your company should invest in Business Planning Training

To perform at peak capacity one needs to stay sharp. In corporate culture to stay ahead you need to constantly sharpen the skills. Training helps reinforced the learnings demanded by the function. This is a worthwhile use of resources both from the company’s perspective and from the perspective of the individual as evinced by the […]

Does your planning software have a genie ?

The function of planning and forecasting goes back a long way and has mentions as an ancient practice in religious and historical texts. Like all other phenomena, the function deals with development and advancement, whether theoretical or technological, in a cyclic manner – Realise, Reconstruct, Refresh and Repeat.  When it comes to modelling times series sales […]

The Problem with Negative Values in Time-Series Forecasting

There is an old expression that is ubiquitous in human activities that involve the use of input data to create actionable information. That expression is: ‘Garbage In, Garbage Out’.   The same axiom applies to time-series forecasting.  Time-series forecasting is a technique which is predicated upon the tenet that a mathematical model which fits the pattern […]

Forecasting Intermittent Demand – A Proposal

Arguably, SKUs with Intermittent Demand are some of the most challenging to forecast with any modicum of accuracy.  We generally define Intermittent Demand as follows: Intermittent series has demand appear at random with many time periods showing no demand at all. The prominent characteristics of such series are: The time-series contains embedded zeroes The time-series […]

The 7 Habits of Highly Effective Forecasters

As a consequence of being in a forecasting consultancy we have picked up an in-depth understanding of the planning and forecasting functions of the firms. One conclusion we have drawn is that irrespective of distribution, dimension or division, most firms have similar struggles from similar function weaknesses. What we also noticed is that for demand […]

Romancing the Regression Equation

Regression is one of the highly spoken about quantitiative methods in forecasting. It is a statistical method of identifying relationship between two or more variables (one dependent variable and others independent variables). If these two variables have a strong relationship then we leverage this relationship to use the knowledge of the independent variable to predict […]

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